Julio Moreno, head of research at on-chain analytics platform Crypto Quant, predicted a potential bottoming point in the price of Bitcoin in an analysis that was posted to X (previously Twitter) on April 18.
Bitcoin Selling Pressure
Data from Crypto Quant indicates that traders have brought their exchange holdings back to breakeven threshold at $60,000. Moreno summed up, saying, “Bitcoin selling pressure from traders may be declining as unrealized profit margins are basically zero now.”
These speculators appear to have exhausted their winning deals, indicating that a reduction in sales may be necessary in order to prevent losses. Since BTC/USD started retracing from fresh all-time highs in March, there has only been one brief dip below $60,000.
The unexpected new peak that occurred prior to this week’s block subsidy halving raised hopes for a BTC price drop.
Since the end of the 2022 bear market, returns to the realized price of STHs have been used to define bottoms on a number of occasions, and the trendline has nearly always supported the market.
Bitcoin Price Hesitantly Increasing
On April 18, however, Bitcoin experienced a reprieve, rising to $64,182 on Bitstamp. Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital stated on the day that “this is now a -18% deep pullback that has lasted 10 days thus far.
Depth-wise, this is very close to bargain-buying territory based on pullbacks in this cycle (up to -23% deep at most).” Time-wise, though, this cycle’s retracement is still among the shortest—it’s currently only 10 days long.
Pullbacks in the past have lasted two to three weeks, and sometimes up to two months. More proof of spot demand, according to fellow trader Skew, is required to inspire confidence in a full-fledged rebound.
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