A wealth of information about the potential hazards associated with investments in 2024 can be found in Morningstar’s outlook report. Here are nine macro or systemic risks that might bring down the markets this year, along with some other unpleasant outcomes, and what Morningstar advises you to think about doing to reduce risk and seize opportunities.
- Reviving the Inflation
US inflation began to rise above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual objective in March 2021 and peaked in June 2022 at a little over 9%. The market anticipates up to six rate cuts in 2024, despite the Fed’s indication that it will likely only do so three times. The outcome is uncertain since the Fed’s choices are influenced by fresh evidence as it is gathered. In the latter case, corporate profits may decline and the likelihood of a recession would increase as the Fed would begin hiking rates once more. Morningstar anticipates significant volatility in the bond and stock markets during these uncertain times.
- US Economic Downturn
The so-called yield curve, which examines the yield of Treasury bonds as a function of their duration to maturity, is one commonly used indicator of recession risk. Longer-term Treasury bonds often have greater yields. This relationship occasionally reverses, with shorter-term treasuries yielding more than longer-term ones. A robust historical correlation exists between this “yield inversion” and increased recession risk. Forbes claims that since 2022, the yield curve has been signaling a coming recession. As to the report by CNBC, a survey conducted in December by the National Association for Business Economics revealed that 76% of economists believe there is a 50% likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months.
- The US’s Ballooning National Debt and Deficits
Over $34 trillion is owed by the US government. True enough, over $34,000,000,000,000. That equates to 125% of the US GDP of $27.36, where anything above 100% is deemed dangerous. The debt service component of the federal budget is increasing due to rising interest rates; by December 2023, it will account for 18% of the total government budget. An even larger budget will need to go into debt service if the government’s average interest rate keeps rising. If Congress doesn’t stop it, there will be a vicious debt spiral whereby the national debt rises to pay for the increased interest payments, which will cover an increase in the deficit.
- Business Property
Remote employment became popular during the COVID-19 outbreak, and many employees relocated to less expensive areas to save money. Many businesses are attempting to persuade staff members to return to work, even only part-time, as the pandemic is now considered to be “endemic” and less lethal (particularly for those who have received all vaccinations). Many workers decline, particularly those who have moved away. As a result of individuals shifting to online shopping, there was an increase in the number of vacancies in commercial real estate, particularly in office space and retail space. Consequently, the value of commercial real estate is declining.
- Election Concerns
Three years after the Capitol assault on January 6, a CBS survey indicates that public opinion is shifting away from those responsible and toward the likelihood of violence in response to electoral defeats. 21% of Republicans supported the attackers’ actions in January 2021. This number has increased to 30% since then. Among MAGA supporters, this percentage is 43%, whereas among non-MAGA Republicans, it is 22%. If Trump were to run for president again, nearly two-thirds (66%) of Republicans would be in favor of pardoning the attackers from January 6. Violence is anticipated by 49% of Americans over upcoming election defeats.
Seventy percent believe that our democracy is in danger.
- The Weakening Economy of China
China has had a decades-long economic boom. However, due to a severe property collapse, its GDP growth is declining. Global financial and geopolitical upheaval could result from a stagnant or crumbling Chinese economy. Morningstar predicts a decline in Chinese stocks and an increased chance of recession for China’s trading partners.
- US-China Conflict
Trump initiated a trade war with China when he was president. President Biden carried on this pattern by attempting to bring many other critical technologies, including chip development and manufacture, back home. As a result, the US imported more goods from Mexico than China for the first time in more than 20 years.
- Russia-Ukraine Conflict
From a possible conflict to one that has been raging in Ukraine for more than two years, Russia is at war there. In addition to the harsh direct effects of the conflict on the people of Ukraine and the negative impact of the punitive sanctions on the people and economy of Russia, there are also worldwide repercussions. These are mostly pushing up the price of food and energy globally. Beyond this, there’s always the chance that a mistake will cause a war beyond Ukraine and possibly involve every nation in NATO. According to Morningstar, disturbances in the food and energy markets might lead to shocks in the world’s food and oil prices, raising the likelihood of a recession for nations with weak economies.
- Increasing Regional Conflict in the Middle East
More than 3000 Hamas militants invaded Israel on October 7, 2023, and killed over 1000 Israelis, in addition to torturing and maiming them. In addition, they returned more than 250 hostages to Gaza. Israel responded quickly and harshly, first attacking the heavily populated Gaza Strip from the air and later on the ground. Iran may not have even known the Hamas strike was coming until after it happened, and it is improbable that Tehran was the cause of the attack. But Iran has long supported numerous terrorist organizations with both arms and training in an attempt to provoke Israel into a possible multifront proxy conflict. Israel and US interests in the Middle East have been attacked by Hezbollah in Lebanon, various militias in Syria and Iraq, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen.Â
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